Bitcoin registered an intraday low of $81,514.28 on Oct. 14 as September CPI came in hotter than forecast, with headline inflation at 3.7% year over year against 3.6% expected and core at 2.6% against 2.5%.
Glassnode’s latest on-chain data suggests a calmer holder base than the price action. The harder test sits near $80,000, where large spot bids and modeled long liquidations overlap, and altcoins carry a different set of risks.
Headline CPI rose 0.6% on the month, in line with expectations; core rose 0.3% vs. the expected 0.2%, and gasoline supplied more than half of the headline increase, while stronger shelter and other underlying prices kept core firm.
The dollar strengthened, equities fell, and traders lifted the probability of an October Fed
hike from about 20% to 41% on LSEG pricing.
The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% in September, and the next decision arrives Oct. 28. Bitfinex put the 10-year real Treasury yield at 2.91% on Oct. 9, and it treats sustained levels above 3% as a macro headwind.
Why $80,000 is the key support
Glassnode’s Oct. 14 report finds long-term holder realized losses down about 85% from their Aug. 12 peak. Profit-taking now dominates, with roughly four coins spent in profit for every coin spent at a loss, against about 12 coins spent at a loss for every coin in profit in June.
Bitcoin trades above its True Market Mean near $78,000, a proxy for the average cost basis of economically active investors. Every daily close this year has held above the aggregate realized price that Bitcoin closed below in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
Falling realized losses can reflect conviction, exhausted sellers, or fewer coins changing hands at a loss, so the data shows easing capitulation while demand faces its test from here.
Glassnode places the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETF holders near $81,500, and Bitcoin dipped below that level on Oct. 8 and Oct. 13 before recovering by each daily close. A sustained close below it would put the average ETF holding underwater.
Glassnode’s Binance order-book snapshot shows the largest concentrated spot buy orders around $80,000, and its two-month futures liquidation heatmap shows a major cluster of potential long liquidations just beneath that price.
If the bids hold, the liquidations may stay dormant. If bids are pulled or consumed, forced selling could push price toward $78,000, a drop of about 4.3% from $81,500, and retest the True Market Mean.
Resting bids can move or refill, which makes $80,000 a liquidity transition whose outcome depends on whether bids refill. On the upside, coins acquired six to 12 months ago carry a cost basis near $88,000, where Glassnode also sees a large short-liquidation cluster and where returning break-even holders could sell into a rally.
ETF flows improved before the CPI print, with Farside Investors’ data showing inflows of $175.7 million on Oct. 13.
Altcoins carry a different risk
Bitfinex’s Oct. 12 report found that the median large altcoin fell 14.8% in the latest pullback while Bitcoin fell 7.9%. That 1.9x ratio compares with a range of 1.1 to 1.7x in the previous five pullbacks since July.
Average downside sensitivity across the six corrections reads 1.2 times for ETH, 1.5 times for SOL and XRP, and 2 times for SUI. In recoveries, the median altcoin rebounded about 1.3 times as much as Bitcoin, which sets up persistent relative underperformance.
Glassnode’s coin-level froth indicator has stayed in its highest historical quintile since Sept. 28, while its global froth reading remains comparatively low, and the report describes the leverage pockets in aggregate.
A separate CoinMarketCap analysis reported Oct. 12 found aggregate crypto derivatives open interest up about 15% over the measured week while Bitcoin open interest fell 6%, which points to exposure migrating away from Bitcoin.
Depth adds a second channel, with Bitcoin’s order-book depth within 1% of price near $11.7 million on Oct. 7, about 75% greater than on the October 2025 crash day, and ETH’s depth recovered to a similar degree.
The measured altcoin basket’s depth within 5% of price has fallen about 33% since January 2025 to roughly $2 million. Ethereum ETFs returned to inflows on Oct. 13 at $24.8 million, ending nine sessions of outflows, while Solana ETFs recorded a $1 million outflow, so the altcoin picture is split across assets.
What each path means
If $80,000 bids hold, ETF inflows repeat, and Bitcoin reclaims $81,500, the path opens toward $84,500 to $88,000.
Altcoins would join a rebound near 1.3 times Bitcoin’s, and the Oct. 28 Fed decision would meet a market that has absorbed the CPI shock and kept its holder base intact.
If $80,000 gives way and long liquidations accelerate, $78,000 becomes the next reference. At the 1.9-times ratio from the latest pullback, a 4.3% Bitcoin decline implies an altcoin decline near 8%, a linear approximation that omits changing correlations and token-level liquidity.
Bitfinex separately modeled an 11% to 14% median-altcoin decline if Bitcoin fell toward $77,400. The tokens with crowded positions would absorb forced selling first.
Bitcoin’s holders show less panic than the price implies, and the market needs fresh demand to defend $80,000 through the Oct. 28 decision.
