Galaxy Digital’s research arm has cut its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% just three weeks ago, citing a Senate floor calendar that grows shorter each week and a bill that still lacks a merged text, a scheduled vote, or public commitment from leadership.

The downgrade, published by Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn, is a calendar story more than a substance story. The bill itself — the CLARITY Act, short for the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act — cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 ever since. No floor date has been set. No motion to proceed has been scheduled.

The CLARITY Act represents the most significant attempt yet by Congress to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. It draws jurisdictional lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establishes standards for when a digital asset is a commodity versus a security, and includes the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which provides protections for certain blockchain developers and node operators. 

The bill passed out of the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support, a notable threshold in a political environment where crypto legislation has often stalled on party-line divisions.

The House passed a version of market structure legislation in 2024, but Senate action has been the harder lift. Banking and Agriculture committees both have jurisdiction, and staff-level reconciliation of the two committee texts is still underway. No unified legislative text has been made public.

The calendar problem with the CLARITY Act

For a 60-vote bill — one that needs to clear the filibuster — the math is tight. The Senate is scheduled to begin its August recess at the end of July. Between now and then, a merged Banking-Agriculture text still needs to be finalized, a motion to proceed must be filed, floor debate must occur, and an amendment process must run. 

After all that, the House would need to act on whatever the Senate produces.

Thorn wrote that Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce floor time by early July “at the latest” for a July vote to be realistic. 

Without a scheduling announcement on that timeline, the path shifts to September — and September runs into midterm-election dynamics that make scheduling controversial votes difficult.

The competition for floor time has intensified. Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act lapsed on June 12 after Congress failed to pass a reauthorization, and a Grassley-Cotton-Warner product still needs floor time. 

The FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, a must-pass annual defense bill, also remains unfinished.

And on June 24, President Trump canceled the scheduled signing of a bipartisan housing bill that passed 358-32 in the House and 85-5 in the Senate, conditioning his signature on Congress first passing the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill that Thune has said lacks the votes to pass the chamber. That condition injects another leadership-consuming fight into an already packed queue.

The calendar is the headline, but the bill’s substance has not been fully resolved. The ethics question remains the central open issue: a Van Hollen conflict-of-interest amendment failed 11-13 in committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker continue to make enforceable ethics standards a condition of their support.

Thorn wrote that at least two Republican no votes — Josh Hawley and Rand Paul — are expected, which means Democratic crossover support is not optional. Law enforcement-aligned senators are also pressing for further changes to the developer-protection language inside the BRCA.

Galaxy’s note identified conditions that would push the odds back up: a public agreement on a combined Banking-Agriculture text, credible resolution of the ethics or BRCA disputes in a way that locks in a durable Democratic bloc, and a floor commitment from leadership for July. A scheduling announcement in the next two weeks, Thorn wrote, would push the firm back toward 60% or higher. Continued silence into mid-July would push it lower.

For now, the bill waits at No. 423 on the Senate calendar — real, but unscheduled, in a chamber that keeps finding other things to do.